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Markets for wheat, maize, rice and soybeans remain well supplied as of November. Global crop conditions remain generally favorable, though localized challenges persist. Early-season drought is affecting winter wheat sowing in China, the European Union, and Ukraine, while excessive rains are hampering maize harvesting in China and the United States. In addition, tropical storms in Viet Nam and Thailand have damaged rice crops. Despite these disruptions, prices declined for all major crops except soybeans, which saw slight gains. Fertilizer prices also eased but remain high relative to crop values, weighing on fertilizer demand. The outlook is clouded by the US government shutdown, which has been disrupting the release of crucial market reports, coupled with policy uncertainty and evolving trade policies.

Food security in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is deteriorating as conflict continues to drive tens of thousands of people from their homes.
Approximately 24.8 million people (21 percent of the population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity between September and December 2025. More than 3.2 million people (3 percent of the population) are facing Emergency levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 4), characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition, while 21.5 million people (18 percent of the population) are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Three territories—Djugu and Mambasa (Ituri) and Masisi (North Kivu)—are now classified in Phase 4, whereas no areas were classified in Phase 4 in the previous analysis for the same period last year.
The overall food security situation is likely to worsen over the projection period (January-June 2026) as 26.6 million people (22 percent of the population) are projected to face Phase 3 or above—an increase of 1.8 million people compared to the current period. Six additional territories are expected to see their situation deteriorate to Phase 4. They are Lubero and Walikale (North Kivu), Kalehe and Fizi (South Kivu), Kongolo and Moba (Tanganyika). Djugu, Mambasa and Masisi will continue to be in Phase 4.
The persistent conflict and population displacement as well as flooding and impacts of the lean season, especially in the eastern part of the country, will drive this deterioration. This, combined with the expected further reductions in humanitarian food aid will leave vulnerable populations at risk of slipping into higher levels of acute food insecurity.

As of September 2025, El Fasher town (North Darfur) and the besieged town of Kadugli (South Kordofan) were classified in Famine (IPC Phase 5) with reasonable evidence. These conditions are expected to persist through January 2026. Conditions in the besieged town of Dilling (South Kordofan) are estimated to be similar to those in Kadugli town; however, the lack of data prevents IPC classification of this area.
Uncertainty surrounding the evolution of conflict heightens the risk of Famine, particularly in 20 areas expected to receive displaced populations across North, South, and East Darfur, as well as West and South Kordofan.
In September 2025, at the peak of the lean season, an estimated 21.2 million people—45 percent of the population—faced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), including 375,000 people in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) and 6.3 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).
Food security conditions will improve after the harvest, leading to a decline in the number of people in IPC Phase 3 or above to 19.2 million people between October 2025 and January 2026. However, in North Darfur and the Western Nuba Mountains, gains from the harvest will remain limited due to conflict and insecurity. During the post-harvest and pre-lean season (February - May 2026), acute food insecurity is projected to worsen with an estimated 19.1 million people (41%) expected to face IPC Phase 3 or above conditions. This apparent reduction in numbers is primarily due to the inability to classify several high-concern areas.

Approximately 1.7 million people (17 percent of the population analysed) are likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between October 2025 and March 2026. This is an increase compared to the current period (May – September 2025) where 1.2 million people (12 percent of the population) experienced Phase 3 or above. However, it is a significant improvement compared to the overall situation in 2024 (April – September) where 4.9 million people (29 percent of the population analysed) faced Phase 3 or above.
The large reduction in people facing Phase 3 or above compared to May to September 2024, is largely due to Zambia returning to normalcy after a peculiar year that saw widespread drought across the country.
Despite the improvement in the overall food security situation, 1.7 million people are still in urgent need of humanitarian food assistance to reduce food gaps, protect and restore livelihoods, as well as to prevent acute malnutrition. This includes 9,900 people classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency)—primarily in Mitete, Shang’ombo, and Sikongo districts in the Western province—and 1.69 million people classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). During the projection period, a total of 43 hotspot districts are projected to face Phase 3 or above.