Preventing Food Crises Using Price Signals

In regions where markets tell the first story of scarcity, prices can serve as powerful early warnings. Fousseini Traoré, together with Catherine Araujo Bonjean and Insa Diop, is developing a new tool that uses food price movements to detect and help prevent food crises in West Africa. Drawing on market data from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, the research identifies “leading markets” whose price trends influence surrounding areas. When these prices begin to rise unusually fast, they often signal an impending shortage.

The model tests whether abnormal or “explosive” price behaviors—identified using econometric techniques—can predict the onset of crises for key staples such as millet, sorghum, and maize. By focusing on prices, which instantly reflect changes in expectations about harvests and supply, the system provides an early and cost-effective signal long before traditional data become available.

Still under development, this price-based early warning system complements existing production-focused approaches, offering policymakers a practical way to track risks and respond proactively to protect vulnerable households before shocks escalate into widespread food insecurity.